The bubble burst at around 45 of 427, and we're down to two tables with 18 remaining. I'm in the BB with 44, and I have around 6BB behind. An older guy (not overly tight, kind of a maniac in fact) raises 2x-ish from late pos, I decide it's time to make a stand and shove, and he instacalls with TT. I make a stand, literally, to gather my stuff, and I'm out in 18th.
He has me covered 4-5x, so his range looks something like this:
I have 40.52% against that range, which is pretty good but I don't think I ever get fold equity by reshoving since he has me well-covered.
I hate calling to set-mine there with such a short stack, and the flop was all low so I may have gotten it in on flop anyway after calling, hoping he missed.
I don't know, it's iffy.
54 hands in that range are the pairs.
104 hands in that range are combos.
So roughly 2\3 of the time there I'm up against a combo and not a pair. If I take out all the pairs and leave the combos, then I have a coin-flip with 51.77% equity.
Bottom line is I had a coinflip at best, and was unlucky that he had a strong pair with TT. Up until that point, I had managed to avoid flipping without a decent edge, at least by not calling an all-in without a strong hand.
I think it was a gamble that cost me money, calling an all-in when well-covered with a hand that starts behind his range and is roughly 50\50 at best when he flips up an unpaired hand. I probably should have folded and seen a few more hands.