Tuesday, June 10, 2014

How bad was the reshove?

Since the WSOPC in January, I've been wondering about my bust-out hand and if it I shoved too aggressively. Been spending time with Equilab preparing for Little One for One Drop, and decided to break it down.

The bubble burst at around 45 of 427, and we're down to two tables with 18 remaining. I'm in the BB with 44, and I have around 6BB behind. An older guy (not overly tight, kind of a maniac in fact) raises 2x-ish from late pos, I decide it's time to make a stand and shove, and he instacalls with TT. I make a stand, literally, to gather my stuff, and I'm out in 18th. 

He has me covered 4-5x, so his range looks something like this:


I have 40.52% against that range, which is pretty good but I don't think I ever get fold equity by reshoving since he has me well-covered. 

I hate calling to set-mine there with such a short stack, and the flop was all low so I may have gotten it in on flop anyway after calling, hoping he missed. 

I don't know, it's iffy. 

54 hands in that range are the pairs.
104 hands in that range are combos.

So roughly 2\3 of the time there I'm up against a combo and not a pair. If I take out all the pairs and leave the combos, then I have a coin-flip with 51.77% equity. 

Bottom line is I had a coinflip at best, and was unlucky that he had a strong pair with TT. Up until that point, I had managed to avoid flipping without a decent edge, at least by not calling an all-in without a strong hand. 

I think it was a gamble that cost me money, calling an all-in when well-covered with a hand that starts behind his range and is roughly 50\50 at best when he flips up an unpaired hand. I probably should have folded and seen a few more hands. 

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