Friday, June 20, 2014

In before my connection drops again.

My DSL connection has dropped twice in the last week, so the 2nd tech ran new cable and it will be buried soon, hopefully before someone cuts it lol. 

Been studying JL's Going Pro series with an equity calculator nearby. Trying to sharpen the game before Vegas. I'm thinking about making a drive out to Shreveport next Friday to play a $100-ish tourney, just to get some chips into my hand again. Haven't played live since WSOPC Choctaw last January.

Can't wait for Vegas and One Drop. Sink or swim, it will be a fun experience.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Happy Blog Birthday

I started this blog one year ago to the minute, which also marks when I began to take my game more seriously. Since then, I ran up a balance on Bovada to nearly $2000, finished 2nd to my best friend in live league regular season points with profits around $750, then took down the live league final table championship for $950. I also cashed in my first WSOP Circuit Event for $1473, and was on a great team in CC Winter League that finished 3rd of 15 to win one month DragTheBar memberships.

Joining CardsChat and hanging out online with other aspiring players has played a big part in improving my game. When you see other players succeeding and posting good results, you just want to be and think like them. 

Happy First Birthday, Blog!

(My name's not Chuck, but who gives a %&$#!)

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Carbon Freeroll, Bovada SNG

Out 33rd in the freeroll, 88<QKs. 

Won a micro SnG on Bovada. 

Didn't play great in either, but happy to be near the $100 threshold on Bovada, up from $37-ish.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

How bad was the reshove?

Since the WSOPC in January, I've been wondering about my bust-out hand and if it I shoved too aggressively. Been spending time with Equilab preparing for Little One for One Drop, and decided to break it down.

The bubble burst at around 45 of 427, and we're down to two tables with 18 remaining. I'm in the BB with 44, and I have around 6BB behind. An older guy (not overly tight, kind of a maniac in fact) raises 2x-ish from late pos, I decide it's time to make a stand and shove, and he instacalls with TT. I make a stand, literally, to gather my stuff, and I'm out in 18th. 

He has me covered 4-5x, so his range looks something like this:


I have 40.52% against that range, which is pretty good but I don't think I ever get fold equity by reshoving since he has me well-covered. 

I hate calling to set-mine there with such a short stack, and the flop was all low so I may have gotten it in on flop anyway after calling, hoping he missed. 

I don't know, it's iffy. 

54 hands in that range are the pairs.
104 hands in that range are combos.

So roughly 2\3 of the time there I'm up against a combo and not a pair. If I take out all the pairs and leave the combos, then I have a coin-flip with 51.77% equity. 

Bottom line is I had a coinflip at best, and was unlucky that he had a strong pair with TT. Up until that point, I had managed to avoid flipping without a decent edge, at least by not calling an all-in without a strong hand. 

I think it was a gamble that cost me money, calling an all-in when well-covered with a hand that starts behind his range and is roughly 50\50 at best when he flips up an unpaired hand. I probably should have folded and seen a few more hands. 

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Let it go, Let it go...

I can't, but I don't want to bother the CC thread anymore:

There was a question of whether Selbst played this hand properly or soundly:

And the suggestion was that her 4-bet shove was too aggressive or not well thought out ("unsound"). I am mostly calculator-dependent, and don't know much about hyper-aggressive play (light four and five betting etc), but was curious to look into the hand as a learning experience.

One person said that the 4-bet shove was fine if she suspected a light 3-bet from Fee. The problem with that is I don't think a player like Fee would ever 3-bet light from the big blind with only 21BB against a player as aggressive as Selbst who has him well-covered. The reason is he puts himself in the spot of having to 3-bet\fold for 25% of his stack, which is horrible.

Approximate starting stacks:

1654000 - Selbst
338000 - Fee

So Fee's stack is about 20% of hers.

If we start with the assumption that he's never 3-bet\folding there or 3-betting light, then what does his range look like? I'm thinking this, which is top 6.64%:

Selbst's 9d8s has 28.26% equity against this range according to Equilab. Her equity increases a few % if we add some lower pairs, AJo, and AT combos.

In this range, there are the following combos:

36 combos (6*6) of the six individual pairs 99 to AA.

48 combos (3*16) of AK, AQ, KQ.

4 combos of AJs.

Total possible hands from Fee's estimated range: 88

Roughly 41% of his range consists of the paired hand combinations, while 59% of his range consists of unpaired combos.

When Fee calls the 4-bet shove and shows up with an unpaired combo, Selbst has 35-36% equity at the start of the hand, while investing only 20% of her stack.

I turned the hand around a bit and suggested that Selbst might be justified in calling if Fee overplayed and 3-bet shoved with AKo, but I forgot to do the pot odds. 

Selbst has 35000 invested in the hand. If Fee were to 3-bet shove (a mistake imo with 20BB behind, and may only get him fold equity), Selbst has to call 325000 to win 685000, or 1 to 1.1.

At best she is slightly better than a 2 to 1 underdog. At worst, she is slightly better than a 3 to 1 underdog. She needs around 47% equity to call a 3-bet shove there. At best she has around 36% against any individual unpaired combo, while on average she has around 28%. At worst she is crushed with an average of only 16% equity when Fee shows up with a pair, and only 12% equity when his pair is 99.

So overall, is a 4-bet shove there unsound or overplayed? Mathematically, I think yes because she rarely gets fold equity and is a 72% underdog in the race against his 3-bet range in that spot. But it's hard to fault her or anyone for gambling with only 20% of their stack. 

Time to calculate the EV (expected value) of making the 4-bet shove in that spot:

EV= (probability of winning * amount we can win) + (probability of losing * amount we can lose)

Plugging in the numbers (I subtracted Selbst's initial raise from the amount she could lose, because we're calculating the EV for the 4-bet shove, not the initial raise + the 4-bet):

EV= (.28 * 360,000) + (.72 * -303,000)

Expected Value of 4-bet shoving in that spot without fold equity = -117360

(Caveat emptor though about EV in tournaments.)

As for how Fee played the hand? Apparently he 3-bet to an amount that could give an impression of fold equity, induced a shove from a worse hand, and got unlucky. 

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Vegas! Vegas! Vegas!

In a miraculous turn of events, I was able to get someone to cover me so I can fly to Vegas to play in the Little One for One Drop with the CardsChat team. CC is doing an awesome promotion that made it a virtual no-brainer, so I double-checked the team slots and booked travel asap. It's waaaay more expensive to travel there during the WSOP (partly because of 1 Adult rates), but a discount on the tourney buyin makes it doable. 

I've got to get down to business and study hard before the trip, and get into shape for hopefully a long grind at the tables.

Go Team CardsChat!

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Cashed on Carbon

Any news is good news, right? Ran incredibly well in the CC Carbon Freeroll last night, until my luck ran out on the FT: KK<ATs (AT on the flop lol), and TT<AJo. Flopped quad kings early on and got paid the max when I shouldn't have:

Game #77358814-27: Cardschat $100 Freeroll - 20.00/40.00
Seat #0: WyleECoyote1 (BB), $7291.00
Seat #1: tbdbitl82, $5395.00
Seat #2: woohoosue1, $2435.00
Seat #3: stranger96, $2557.00
Seat #4: Rifflemao, $2900.00
Seat #5: Fun7Seeker, $2405.00
Seat #6: RefinadoTom0 (D), $2472.00
Seat #8: ChipzzSpewer (SB), $2385.00

*** Blinds ***
ChipzzSpewer posts the small blind of 20.00
WyleECoyote1 posts the big blind of 40.00

*** Pre-Flop ***
Rifflemao got hole cards [ Kh Kd ]
tbdbitl82 raises with 80.00
woohoosue1 folds
stranger96 folds
Rifflemao raises with 220.00
Fun7Seeker calls 220.00
RefinadoTom0 folds
ChipzzSpewer folds
WyleECoyote1 folds
tbdbitl82 calls 140.00

*** Flop *** Pot: 720
[ 8c Ks Kc ]
tbdbitl82 checks
Rifflemao checks
Fun7Seeker bets 240.00
tbdbitl82 folds
Rifflemao calls 240.00

*** Turn *** Pot: 1200
[ 8c Ks Kc ] [ 6s ]
Rifflemao checks
Fun7Seeker bets 240.00
Rifflemao calls 240.00

*** River *** Pot: 1680
[ 8c Ks Kc ] [ 6s ] [ 2c ]
Rifflemao bets 240.00
Fun7Seeker raises with 480.00
Rifflemao goes all-in with 1960.00
Fun7Seeker goes all-in with 1225.00

*** Showdown *** Pot: 5585
Rifflemao shows [ Kh Kd ]
Fun7Seeker shows [ Ts Tc ]
Fun7Seeker is out
Rifflemao wins 5090.00
Rifflemao wins 495.00

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

STe Genevieve Sweet Moscato

I have a symbiotic relationship with a distant unknown neighbor. Every day, mostly during the summer, my neighbor tosses one or more empty mini-bottles of cheap moscato from their car window along my walk. It seems they cannot wait to drink until they get home, and perhaps someone at home would disapprove; so they toss the shiny evidence along the lakefront roadside, where I covertly pick it up later for delivery to my trashcan...far enough from the neighbor's home that it would be unlikely to be found before it is taken away forever on Monday morning.

It's like a secret pact, or an unspoken agreement that is mutually beneficial.

Don't worry neighbor, whoever you are; I will continue to help keep your little secret by discarding the evidence, but be careful...

Monday, June 2, 2014

Good news, no one!

Ran like a beast and cashed for $8 on FF tonight. Hey, gotta celebrate something to get some momentum going again!

Sunday, June 1, 2014


No ticket to the Bovada RTR Freeroll today, which was important to building my bankroll last year ($460 free). Logged in at RTR and my rakeback deal is no longer visible. Checked my emails and the last word I got was for the freeroll on 5\25.

I have a feeling this has something to do with NJ pouncing on affiliates, although you would think RTR would limit offers to only players from NJ by somehow making "illegal" offers invisible to them. I believe this is what CC has done too. 

Gonna be a tough road to the $5k goal, but maybe I can make a deep run in a live tourney before the year is up. Need to check Winstar for the MiniRiver series and Choctaw for tour stops.