Monday, July 1, 2013

Spoiler Alert

I finally scored a big pot on a $1\$2 table, so I'll discuss it now since it fits my criteria for playing Ax suited hands in a cash game.

I won't call many raises with Ax, even when suited, because (according to FlopTurnRiver) you only have an 11% chance of flopping a flush draw, which is the usual plan. Even when you do, people are usually scared of the flush card on the turn, so you don't win enough long term to justify calling lots of raises with a dominated ace.

Tonight was an exception. I was dealt A7 of hearts on the button and there was a raise and two more callers. This situation more than fits the criteria under which most players will call a 3 big blind ($6) raise. Another is if you're in the big blind and it only costs $4 more to call. Here is how it played out:

UTG+2 calls $2
UTG+3 raises to $6
UTG+4 calls $6
Dealer (me) calls $6
The blinds fold $3
UTG+2 calls $4
Pot: $27

Flop: 5h 4h Jc
UTG+2 checks
UTG+3 bets $17.50
UTG+4 calls $17.50
Dealer (me) calls $17.50
UTG+2 folds
Pot: $79.50

I flopped my draw, and have to call $17.50 to win $79.50, so 22%. With 9 outs I have roughly an 18% chance to make a flush on the turn, and another 18% by the river. My implied odds (potential to win more) are good enough, so this is an easy call.

Turn: 5h 4h Jc Jh
UTG+3 bets $39.75
UTG+4 calls $39.75
Dealer (me) calls $39.75
Pot: $198.75

Yay, I hit the nut flush. However, since the board paired jacks, I am now concerned about a full house...but I have to call here. The pot odds no longer matter.

River: 5h 4h Jc Jh Tc
UTG+3 All-in for $130.75
UTG+4 folds
Dealer (me) crosses fingers, waits a few seconds, and calls $130.75
Pot: $460.25

UTG+3 shows J 9 8 5 4 of hearts
Dealer (me) shows A J 7 5 4 of hearts (cue money-falling-from-sky animation)

It looks like he overplayed a weak flush here, but shoving the river was his only way to win the hand. He loses to quad jacks, a full house, or a better flush, but could potentially fold out any flush not containing an ace or king. But since he's out of position, it was probably best for him to check the river and see what I bet. If I make a small  river bet, he can call and save half his stack, or shove to rep the full house or (hopefully for him) a better flush.

Needless to say, the cash game graph will skyrocket in 24 hours when this hand history posts to my stats. My account is at $952.21, and I will drop down to the lower stakes to try and close the gap on my goal of $1000.

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